You may tie this in to climate change in general to prove your point, but this is a discussion about El Nino weather event and it is important to remember the current situation is not unprecedented.
This El Nino is expected to be worse than that based on the El Nino 3.4 temperatures we are already seeing. This is why most weather people are talking about it so much.
We do not have the same data for the 1877 event that we do for the last strongest El Nino in 1997. And this one is much stronger than that by far:
Lets not speculate, currently there have been worse ones in the past. If this eventually becomes more extreme then yes it will become a big talking point, but it is not there yet.
It’s not called speculation. It’s called the scientific extrapolation. The reason why we do this is to prevent people from dying. If we wait till it becomes extreme and we’re saddled with food shortages it’s too late.
And currently , this is the worst El Niño ever recorded at this point. El Niño right now is worse than the El Niño in 1997 was at this point. Much worse. We simply don’t have these numbers for 1887.
Consistency doesn't seem your strong point, in language as well as factually!
I stand by my point, this is currently not unprecedented.
You are welcome to disagree, but as you keep saying 'We dont have the numbers' then you cant be sure just as much as you are saying I cant.
Timeframe changes, worst el Nino ever of worst at this point in time in a cycle which he actually backed up with data. And is expected to be worse than 1997 based on that data, so also consistent in his writing.
You are missing my point. The planet is warmer now, less stable. That makes a smaller relative amount of warming take us even further away from what used to be normal.
It's hard to rationally discuss this with non-experts as you will immediately be labeled an AGW denying crank and downvoted to oblivion.
Yes, AGW is real. Yes, extreme weather and climate events have occurred before AGW. No, I am not saying that AGW is incapable of making these extreme events even worse.
For instance, California has experienced megadroughts lasting decades or hundreds of years in the relatively recent past.
Lets not forget there have been bigger and hotter events than this in local past.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1877%E2%80%931878_El_Ni%C3%B1o...
You may tie this in to climate change in general to prove your point, but this is a discussion about El Nino weather event and it is important to remember the current situation is not unprecedented.